Red Sox: April 16

Wow. What a bad way to start the season. And let me note that Blogger doesn't handle tables very well.

After 12 games, they are 2-10:

• At a .500 pace, they'll end at 77-85.
  
• At a .550 pace (89 wins over a season), they'll end 85-77.
  
• At a .575 pace (93 wins over a season), they'll end 88-74.
  
• At a .600 pace (97 wins over a season), they'll end 92-70.
  
• At a .610 pace (99 wins over a season), they'll end 94-68.
  
• At a .620 pace (100 wins over a season), they'll end 95-66.
  

So, can they make the playoffs? Let's look at the last ten years.

First, let's look at what it takes to get into the playoffs in the American League:

Year	Top 3 AL East	Best 2nd place not in AL East
2010	96, 95, 89	88
2009	103, 95, 84	87
2008	97, 95, 89	88
2007	96, 94, 83	88
2006	97, 87, 86	95
2005	95, 95, 80	93
2004	101, 98, 78	91
2003	101, 95, 86	93
2002	103, 93, 78	99
2001	95, 82, 80	102

Getting to the wild card recently (since 2007) requires 89 wins, but 93 wins would be comfortable, and 95 would almost guarantee the wild card. Something happened between 2006 and 2007; the highest win total of a team from the Central or West that finished second dropped pretty sharply.

How many teams have got to 89 wins? 92? 95? Here's the table over the last 10 years:

Wins	Number of Teams	Teams
116	1	Mariners, 2001
105	1	Cardinals, 2004
103	3	Yankees, 2002, 2009; A's, 2002
102	1	A's, 2001
101	4	Braves, 2002, 2003; Yankees 2003, 2004
100	3	Giants, 2003; Cardinals, 2005; Angels, 2008
99	2	Angels, 2002; White Sox 2005
98	2	Diamondbacks 2002; Red Sox 2004
97	7
96	6
95	11
94	4
93	9
92	8
91	7
90	8
89	7

Out of 300 teams:

• 13 have won more than 100 games; that's 4 percent.
  
• 28 have won 95 to 100 games; that's 10 percent.
  
• 20 have won 92, 93, or 94 games; that's 7 percent.
  
• 22 have won 89, 90, or 91 games; that's 7 percent.
  

So:

• To get to 89 wins, they have to play at a 93 wins pace; 18 percent of teams have done that.
  
• To get to 92 wins, they have to play at a 97 wins pace; 8 percent of teams have done that.
  
• To get to 95 wins, they have to play at a 100 win pace; 4 percent of teams have done that.
  

Getting to the playoffs will require an impressive run over the rest of the season. Of course, another question for another day is: how many teams who've won 92 games have gone 2-10 over some stretch?

There are some wierd numbers for the hitters. Pedroia is playing great (.348/.423/.565), while Youkilis is getting on base but not hitting (.200/.451/.371) while Ortiz is hitting but not getting on base (.262/.333/.500). Nobody else is playing particularly well: Saltalamacchia and Crawford have OPS+ under 15, while Scutaro, Ellsbury, and Drew are between 54 and 78. Gonzalez is at 107, with a line of .244/.346/.400--about league average, but you'd hope for better production than that. Off the bench, Lowrie is at 209 for OPS+ (.471/.526/.588 in 19 PA), but McDonald is at league average and Cameron and Varitek are below zero.

Lester and Beckett are pitching well, especially Beckett. Buchholz, Lackey, and Matsuzaka are terrible. Papelbon and Aceves are pitching well in relief, but in only 10.2 innincpts. Wakefield is the best of the rest, but when a 44 year old knuckleballer is your best relief pitcher and his ERA+ is 76, there's trouble. Jenks was a flier; his control has been getting worse since 2007, and any hopes he can get his walk rate back down are getting slimmer. Wheeler is coming off a couple of good years at Tampa Bay; he might be able to straighten things out. Bard is the tricky one--strikeouts are way down, hits way up, but only in 4.2 IP. The bullpen might straighten out, but the three bad starting pitchers might be the biggest problem.

At this point, the Red Sox have played 4 complete series

1. 0-3 vs Texas and Cleveland
   
2. 0-2 vs Tampa Bay
   
3. 2-1 vs New York
   

Over the season, I will try to keep track of how many series each team has won and lost. Dropping a series to Cleveland doesn't look good.